When Are Home Heating Prices Expected to Go Down?

With winter weather hitting hard, homeowners in the U.S. are experiencing the challenge of home heating costs. Recent years have seen a noteworthy rise in energy prices, leaving many in search of answers and relief. Learn what impacts home heating prices, the recent trends we’ve seen and strategies to keep your utility bills in check.

Different Kinds of Home Heating Fuel

Several fuels are used to keep homes warm and cozy in the United States:

  • Natural gas heats 48% of American homes.
  • Heating oil heats 5% of homes.
  • Propane fuels another 5%.
  • Electricity warms 40% of U.S. homes. Fossil fuels are still the primary source for creating electricity in spite of the renewed focus on renewable energy sources like wind and solar. 

What Affects the Price of Fossil Fuels?

Based on the above information, it’s apparent that fossil fuels heat a vast majority of North American households. Supply and demand is the number one factor driving price fluctuations. An increase in supply—triggered by higher production and storage rates—generally lowers prices, while a surge in demand—caused by severe weather, a booming economy and rising rates for alternative fuels—can cause prices to climb.

Exactly How Much Has the Cost of Natural Gas Risen?

Domestic natural gas production outpaced consumption starting in 2017, resulting in an overall price decline throughout 2018. But, demand has soared recently across all sectors, causing natural gas prices to achieve heights not seen in more than decade.

In 2022, the average wholesale cost of U.S. natural gas hit its highest peak since 2008, reaching an average of $6.45 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). This huge spike represented a significant leap of more than 53% from the previous year, marking it as one of the steepest annual increases in history.

A number of factors led to the erratic rise and uncertainty of natural gas prices last year. In early 2022, production hiccups caused by freeze-offs and a large draw from natural gas reserves nudged prices up. Robust liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to Europe and other countries, paired with an increase in domestic demand caused by cold weather, stretched the price range even further.

In the spring of 2022, prices jumped past $9/MMBtu, only to fall by 40% following the fire and subsequent closure of the Freeport LNG export terminal. This incident sharply cut U.S. LNG exports and redirected more natural gas toward storage. However, as the summer heat faded, prices climbed once again, hitting a high point in late August.

Going into the fall, an uptick in natural gas production and higher-than-average injections into storage saw prices retreat closer to the five-year average. Yet, as temperatures decreased, the demand for heating caused prices to rise one more time.

When Will Fuel Rates Go Down?

The fluctuations in natural gas prices underscore the complicated interplay of factors influencing home heating costs. As we look forward to the rest of the 2023-24 heating season, the market’s past behavior offers insights into future price changes and the potential for cost-saving measures.

As of late 2023, prices have come down from their previous highs thanks to robust production and reasonably mellow temperatures. Although demand continues to be steady, forecasters suggest prices around $3.44/MMBtu this winter, offering some respite for house owners as we move through the heating season.

Tips to Reduce Your Heating Bill

Regardless of how you heat your home or what prices are like, you can take several practical steps to boost energy efficiency and lower your heating expenses. Here are a few suggestions:

  • Seal drafty windows and doors with caulk and weatherstripping.
  • Use curtains to your advantage, throwing them open during the day for free light and heat and then drawing them closed each night to insulate your windows.
  • Add more attic insulation to keep heat from rising out of your home.
  • Buy a smart thermostat that learns your routines and adjusts the temperature accordingly to help reduce your energy usage.
  • Lower the temperature on your thermostat when you’re away so you aren’t heating an empty house.
  • Put on warmer clothes inside your residence so you do not have to crank up the thermostat.
  • Schedule annual furnace maintenance to keep your heating system in good working order.
  • Install a whole-house humidifier. Moist air feels warmer than dry air, so you feel more cozy at a lower temperature.

Make Your Home Warm in the U.S. with Service Experts Heating, Air Conditioning & Plumbing

Nothing is of greater importance to the Service Experts Heating, Air Conditioning & Plumbing team than your comfort and safety. Our heating solutions can also help reduce home heating costs, which is excellent news for your bank account. With ACE-certified technicians at the helm, you can expect quick, long-lasting remedies to all your comfort needs. Our company’s 100% satisfaction guarantee means that if you’re not truly happy with our services, we promise to make things right.

As a company that prides itself on innovation, customer engagement and community support, you can trust Service Experts Heating, Air Conditioning & Plumbing to make a positive difference in your life and enjoyment in your home. For more information about heating prices in the U.S. or personalized tips to help reduce your utility bills, contact the professionals at Service Experts Heating, Air Conditioning & Plumbing. Call 866-397-3787 today to learn more.

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